Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 0.344300 0.391910 0.443601 0.503878 0.572232 0.647333 0.736107
2025-09-14 0.263081 0.323627 0.394468 0.483435 0.592166 0.720732 0.884340
2025-09-21 0.210583 0.277914 0.362207 0.475404 0.623410 0.810368 1.064599
2025-09-28 0.170097 0.239610 0.332266 0.464652 0.648888 0.896231 1.253766
2025-10-05 0.147130 0.220158 0.323306 0.479375 0.709429 1.036105 1.535619
2025-10-12 0.124486 0.197124 0.305441 0.478356 0.747314 1.149740 1.798176
2025-10-19 0.107836 0.180052 0.293349 0.483506 0.794490 1.283040 2.109597
2025-10-26 0.095714 0.167963 0.286833 0.495931 0.854316 1.443554 2.486904
2025-11-02 0.080670 0.148429 0.265072 0.479614 0.864070 1.524054 2.744189
2025-11-09 0.067116 0.129184 0.240727 0.454771 0.854890 1.570439 2.948476
2025-11-16 0.058041 0.116582 0.226153 0.445004 0.870746 1.662038 3.245735
2025-11-23 0.050390 0.105419 0.212488 0.434663 0.883590 1.749129 3.545970
2025-11-30 0.045625 0.099465 0.208409 0.443365 0.936660 1.923556 4.049275
2025-12-07 0.039041 0.088637 0.192944 0.426600 0.935989 1.992744 4.352793
2025-12-14 0.034362 0.081127 0.183205 0.420375 0.956487 2.108132 4.770992
2025-12-21 0.030144 0.073923 0.172989 0.411458 0.969733 2.210100 5.176027
2025-12-28 0.028067 0.071350 0.172694 0.424957 1.035420 2.435604 5.891481
2026-01-04 0.025321 0.066681 0.166812 0.424365 1.068159 2.591443 6.469342
2026-01-11 0.023215 0.063256 0.163371 0.429165 1.114643 2.785896 7.169204
2026-01-18 0.021671 0.061022 0.162529 0.440373 1.178838 3.031990 8.033853
2026-01-25 0.019077 0.055509 0.152447 0.425974 1.175066 3.109565 8.481926
2026-02-01 0.016490 0.049555 0.140258 0.403953 1.147668 3.123069 8.764482
2026-02-08 0.014760 0.045759 0.133324 0.395317 1.155414 3.229606 9.314202